Devi Chandana M

Following a ten-year decline, the easing of COVID-19 limitations and government initiatives to support marriage have been seen as factors to the above. Long-term demographic issues, such as ageing populations and falling birth rates continue.

What does the latest data say?
According to recent data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, China’s marriage rate has temporarily increased. The easing of stringent COVID-19 control measures, which had caused many couples to put off their wedding plans, has been cited as the reason for this increase. In 2023, the number of newlyweds was 7.68 million, with 845,000 marriages more, indicating a rise of 12.4 per cent  from 2022. This uptick in marriages is the first in nine years indicating a break from the long-term trend of dropping marriage rates since 2013. Given that there has been a persistent reduction in weddings during the recent period, with a record low of 13.47 million marriages recorded in 2013, this nuptial spike is significant.

Why was there a decline in marriages during the last decade?
Many social, economic, and cultural issues have contributed to China’s fall in marriage over the past nine years. The impact of China’s rapid modernization and urbanisation, has altered social norms and values, with youth focussing on education and careers, than marriage and starting a family. This trend is noticeable in metropolitan locations, where living expenses are high and professional success is highly pressured. The second economic factor is the rising living expenses, particularly property prices; young couples find it difficult to make marriage and motherhood financially feasible due to this. Housing costs are high in many parts of China, which acts as a major financial obstacle. Student loan debt and other indebtedness, further discourage young people from marriage and childrearing. Third, societal and cultural factors play a role in the decrease in marriages. Many families find the customary expectations around marriage, such as the large price (Caili), unaffordable. The groom’s family bears a heavy financial burden from this custom, which has become increasingly expensive. Fourth, attempts to reverse the decline in marriages have not been successful. Despite initiatives such as the adoption of incentives to encourage births and the relaxation of the one-child policy in 2015, economic and social conditions influence the decision to get married.

In 2023, what has contributed to the increase?
First, the easing of COVID-19 control procedures is the primary cause of the recent rise in weddings. Due to the uncertainty and limitations imposed by the pandemic, many couples decided to put off their wedding planning. After initially delaying their nuptials during COVID, some couples finally went ahead with their arrangements. Second, some cultural ideas. The favourable connotations attached to the Year of the Dragon in Chinese culture have led to marriage decisions for some couples. The influence of zodiac years on marriage choices is noteworthy. The Year of the Dragon may have been particularly attractive to couples who were hoping for good fortune in their relationship and future family. the Youth Development Plan and additional government initiatives designed to promote marriage.

Will the reversal continue?
Although the trend of fewer marriages has temporarily reversed as a result of the above-mentioned causes, ongoing socioeconomic and demographic changes will continue to affect China’s marriage rates over the long run. The future trajectory of China's marriage rates will depend on the sustained impact of government initiatives, economic conditions, and evolving social norms, suggesting a need for continued observation and analysis.

About the Author
Devi Chandana M is a Research Intern at the Institute for Contemporary Chinese Studies and a Student Associate at the Center for Urban Studies at the School of International Relations and Politics, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam.

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